The Naked Negotiator

I am often asked how long it takes someone to make their initial judgment on a person when they first meet them.

I used to answer, “4 minutes.” This reply was based on research on the time it took job interviewers to make up their mind on the suitability of a job applicant. However, I now answer “10 seconds.”

In their remarkable studies, social psychologists Nalini Ambady and Robert Rosenthal, have shown that we often form positive or negative impressions of people in a mere “blink” or “think slice” of time.

After subjects watched three two-second video clips of professors teaching, their teaching ratings predicted the actual end-of-the-term rating by the professor’s own students.

To get a feel on someone’s energy and warmth, the researchers concluded just six seconds is usually enough.

First impressions matter because, we lock down on our first impression. Once we have made a judgment we tent to look for confirming evidence to reinforce our initial impression — good or bad.

Popularity: 14% [?]

David Myers,  Professor of Psychology is an expert on the psychology of fear. Psychological science, Myers tells us, has identified four factors that drive up our perceptions of risk.

1. We fear what our ancestral history has prepared us to fear. Thats why we fear snakes and spiders.

2. We fear what we cannot control. We feel more in control when we are driving a car than we do flying an airplane.

3. We fear what is immediate. We are more concerned about the risks of taking off in a plane than the risk of dying from cancer.

4. We fear threats readily available in memory. We easily recall the 9/11 images and they make us hesitant to fly. Our brains are not designed to easily recall the fact that, mile for mile, we are 37 times more likely to die in a passenger car than on a commercial flight.

No wonder our fears drive so many behaviors. Since fear is largely an emotional factor, negotiators need to actively manage emotions. While you cannot directly control what someone feels, you can influence the drivers that fuel negative emotions such as fear.

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Skilled blackjack players think like investors.

In his book Beat the Deal, author Ed Thorp says the main job is to assess the probability of drawing a favourable hand.

Thorp shows you how to count cards so you can work out when the probability of holding a winning hand moves in your favour.

When the odds favour the player, the best strategy is to increase the bet so you can increase your payout.

Thorp calculates that a favourable opportunity comes up just 9.8% of the time. The odds favour the house the other 90.2% of the time.

The lesson for deal makers is that long term success depends on discipline and expertise. Professional gamblers have played lots of games, they stick to a specific game such as blackjack that increases their zone of competence - then they play the odds.

Professional gamblers only bet big when the odds favour them. In the Casino you have to bet every time you play. In deal making you don’t have to play, until the odds favour you.

Popularity: 100% [?]

“If I had a little humility, I would be perfect.” - Ted Turner

The 5 P’s, “Prior Preparation Prevents Poor Performance” reminds dealmakers that poor deal preparation can prove disastrous.

In July, 1985 Kirk Kerkorian, the head of MGM and United Artists called Ted Turner, the owner of Turner Broadcasting Services with an offer to sell him MGM/UA. Kerkorian told Turner he was going to put MGM/UA up for auction in two weeks, but Turner could have the company if he paid $1.5 billion - and closed the deal by August 8.

Turner desperately wanted MGM/UA films to give him control of his programming, so he sent 40 lawyers and accountants to go over the books. Then, two days before the deadline, and without any negotiation on the price, Turner signed a purchase agreement.

Analysts say he overpaid by $200 to $300 million.

Plus, he ignored that MGM was in a bad state producing a raft of poor money losing films. To boot, his lawyers failed to ask what legal commitments MGM had made. Turner did not uncover that on August 4, MGM/UA had signed a contract locking up all cable rights and that HBO had already contracted to buy several MGM movies at low prices.

Turner may have been a visionary entrepreneur but he proved an amateur dealmaker.

Poor preparation causes us to make unwise assumptions, since assumptions are the mother of all stuff-ups.

When you’re desperate to do a deal and under time pressure remember the 5P’s: Poor Preparation Prevents Poor Performance.

Popularity: 63% [?]

An Aesop Fable on Fairness
Several animals find treasure and must decide how to divide it fairly. The lion speaks up and says, “First, we must carefully divide the treasure into four parts. The first part goes to me, since I am king of the beasts. The second part is mine, owing to my strength. The third part is mine because of my courage. As to the fourth part, anyone who cares to dispute it with me can do so, at his own risk.”

A Bitter Divorce
In 1997 Gary Wendt, the chief executive of GE Capital, divorced his fifty-four-year-old wife of thirty-two years, Lorna Wendt. Gary’s net worth was about $100 million. Lorna wanted a 50-50 split. In court, Gary argued that since it was his talents that accumulated virtually all of the wealth he was entitled to the bulk of the assets. The judge awarded Lorna $20 million. Divorce law in Connecticut calls for equitable not equal distribution of assets.

Principles of Fairness
Our notions of fairness are guided by three, often conflicting principles:

1. The principle of equality says that regardless of contribution, everyone is entitled to an equal share.
2. The principle of equity prescribes that rewards should be based on each person’s contribution.
3. The principle of need prescribes that benefits should be based on need.

Tips and Tactics

• When slicing up the cake, always ask to whom will the recipient(s) compare themselves. People often care more about how their slice compares to others than they do about the absolute size of the pie.

• Make sure the process is seen to be fair and equitable. Commitment to a deal increases when the process is viewed as just and transparent.

• Aim for simplicity, clarity, and justifiability. Perceptions of fairness increase when agreements are simple to follow, deliver clear outcomes and can be easily explained.

• Remember, our egos clash with our notions of fairness. People pay themselves far more than they are willing to pay others for the same job.

Popularity: 72% [?]