How to Recognise the Difference between Skill and Luck in a Deal
One of Maubisson’s insightful comments in his must read book Think Twice (2010) is how to recognise the difference between skill and luck.
Many human activities are a mix of skill and luck. Compare a golfer’s scores over 3 or 4 rounds. An exceptional score over one round is often the result of skill combined with exceptional luck. That’s why exceptionally skilled players triumph over 4 rounds. Great luck rarely holds for four rounds. Over time skill shines through as luck runs out.
If you can deliberately lose a game then skill is the driving factor. If you can’t, it’s luck.
Think of chess. Chess is a game of skill. You can deliberately lose. Roulette by contrast is a game of luck. You can not deliberately lose.
Negotiation is a process of combining skill and luck. However the prime driver of success is skill. It is clearly a game you can deliberately lose.
To lessen the role of luck, negotiators should focus on management of the process. That’s the best way to drive results.
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